Calculator

What are the odds you win the next one?

Two models, both from FalconEye Research on NCAA Division I play-by-play. The first takes the matchup and the moment (who won the last faceoff and how long ago, the score, the quarter, penalties) and gives the odds of winning the next faceoff or draw control. The second takes a team's season faceoff or draw rate and shows what that rate has meant for winning and scoring over the last ten seasons.

Sport

Calculator

The situation

Your team is

Previous faceoff

Your specialist's season FO win %

Season to date. Slider 25 to 80; type any value.Opponent's specialist's season FO win %

Season to date. Slider 25 to 80; type any value.Minutes since that faceoff

min

Game clock. Slider 0 to 10; type any value.Score (you minus them)

TiedPeriodPenalty situationWhat set up this faceoffGame typeYour record so far

Percent of games won, 0 to 100Their record so far

Percent of games won, 0 to 100

Chance you win the next faceoff

57%

Plausible range 54% to 60% (95% interval).

Matchup alone

55%

Situation adds

+2.0 pts

Accuracy check: all inputs are well inside the data

What is moving it

Won the previous one+3.3 pts
Restart after opponent's goal-1.3 pts
Momentum fading with time+0.3 pts
Time since last faceoff-0.2 pts
2nd period-0.1 pts

Built on 14,175 faceoffs from 561 NCAA Division I games in 2025. Strength inputs should be season-to-date rates. This is a model of the odds, not a prediction of any single faceoff; it explains about 2.4% of the outcome and is re-estimated each season.

Situation model: logistic regression on 14,175 men's faceoffs and 18,957 women's draws from the 2025 NCAA Division I season, home-team perspective, standard errors clustered by team, Benjamini-Hochberg-corrected. Season model: linear regression on 3,704 men's and 1,390 women's team-seasons, 2016 to 2025. Both are associations, not guarantees, and no physical or demographic player characteristics are used. Full write-ups: “What Moves the Odds at the X” and “Faceoff & Draw Control: The Win-Rate Dividend,” FalconEye Research, Chris O'Connor and Zach Bittker.